- Published on
Sherpa Trend Signal Updates 2024-03-31
Okay. We may have reached the phase of the bull market where everything is already long.
- Total signal flips: 1
- New longs: 1 (1 crypto)
- New shorts: 0
- Best (aka only) crypto idea: ATOM
- Best aka only. Chain interoperability still a thing.
- Small sample size, but solid short term hit rate for a quick swing (19% mean forward return on 18 signals).
- Best trad idea: N/A
Not much to comment on here. Let’s get to the sig...
CRYPTO
Short Term Trend (3 month lookback)
| Asset | Fwd Return Horizon | Num Signals | Signal Hit Rate | Mean Fwd Return | Median Fwd Return | Fwd Return Std | Signal Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmos Hub (cosmos) | 1m Fwd Return | 18 | 61.1% | 19.3% | 11.0% | 43.8% | Long |
| Cosmos Hub (cosmos) | 3m Fwd Return | 18 | 55.6% | 67.7% | 13.5% | 134.2% | Long |
| Cosmos Hub (cosmos) | 12m Fwd Return | 17 | 47.1% | 112.7% | -7.8% | 208.5% | Long |
until next week 🤙🏼
macro sherpa
Quick recap on the models:
- On the site we maintain daily time series momentum models with 3-month and 12-month lookback windows for hundreds of assets, ranging from s&p 500 constituents, sector, asset class, and country ETF's, to the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap. These signals come from this universe.
- The signals are calculated on a daily close basis, and for the purposes of this report, a new signal must persist for 5 days in order to be considered valid. The five days is arbitrary, but its a solid first-pass naive filter to help reduce chop and reduce market noise.